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在這裡購買基本款裹飾無袖連身褲 - 235941 有限時折扣優惠，趕快跟大家分享這個好消息
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下面附上一則新聞讓大家了解時事
工商時報【第一金投顧董事長陳奕光】
盤勢分析：
台股近兩周集中市場指數及櫃買指數分別上漲2.63％及3.04％，指數走勢呈現破底翻，產業利空頻傳，出口連15個月衰退收黑，較金融海嘯時的連14黑還慘。國際面有6月升息議題再起及英6月脫歐議題紛擾，加上國內總統就職演說的政治利空干擾，致指數最低來到7,999點，跌幅達1.62％，隨520就職演說過後，指數明顯彈升，回到半年線之上。
歐元區經濟仍在處溫和回升中，希臘債務亦獲得減記，整體歐元區的景氣面正逐步改善中，6月亦會正式進行企業債的回購，整體歐元區的貨幣寬鬆成效逐步發揮。日本第1季GDP較預期佳，惟目前對第2季展望相對保守，惟就目前的寬鬆貨幣的角度來看，歐元區的成效仍更勝於日本。
整體來看，目前展望至第3季，6月仍有美升息議題在即及6月23日的英脫歐議題的干擾，另MSCI調降台股權重及中國股市納入MSCI的資金排擠效應等等利空集結，整個6月國內外紛紛擾擾議題尚多，台股指數預期震盪幅度仍大，我們預期指數在8,200～8,500點間震盪。籌碼方面，截至5月24日台指期外資期貨淨多單仍高達3.07萬餘口，正處於資金外流及外資現貨偏空的處境上。技術面來看，指數520總統就職後即上演慶祝行情，5月23日的長紅棒化解指數破底的危機，惟目前反彈要突破8,436點的頭部頸線大壓及8,500～8,600點的下降趨勢線，可能性低，我們預期指數仍介於8,200～8,500點間震盪，逢高持股汰弱留強。
觀盤重點：
（1）5月底MSCI調降台股權重：6/15日中國股市可能納入MSCI的議題，此兩時點對於國內權值類股來說，在國際資金佈局的排擠因素下，指數會有壓抑效果。（2）美國6月升息機率逐步拉升至3成以上：市場對於6月升息的預期愈來愈高，對於資金回流美國，不利新興國家資金駐足的現象持續。（3）英國6月脫歐事件：目前是市場上較大的變數，故5月底後至6月底期間，市場資金應會規避此一事件，減少風險性資產。
投資方向：
(1)半導體類股：財報周告一段落，Q1庫存回到合理水位約67天，第2季回補庫存議題落空，旺季不旺，短線在第2季獲利回吐的賣壓已進行宣泄，整體類股投資建議中性，不建議盲目追高，待下游需求出籠，庫存有效去化後，再回頭佈局。
(2）APPLE概念股：i6s及SE銷售不佳的利空已反應在股價指數上，惟APPLE供應鏈指標大立光、可成等個股，股價已領先築出第二支腳，且上攻至半年線反壓，APPLE股價亦在波克夏等基金佈局，股價逐步創短期新高，我們維持蘋概股仍是目前佈局的重心，建議可留意類股指標，包括台積電、大立光、可成、F-GIS等，而鴻海、鴻準、和碩、緯創、F-TPK、F-鎧勝、晶技、日月光、宏捷科、瑞儀、F-臻鼎、台郡、台光電等亦將雨露均霑。
(3)原物料族群：著重在鋼鐵及塑化類股，惟前者面對鋼價上漲，中國粗鋼產出來到歷史高峰，終端需求明顯未隨報價反彈而明顯出籠，此波行情來自於供給側調整，致售價反彈所致；塑化類股亦有類似狀況，原油反彈，乙烯價格及利差維持高檔，中游EG及SM終端價格反而因下游需求弱，價格下跌，致利差一路縮小，未如預期，故建議待股價漲多回檔及報價止穩後，再作佈局。
(4)汽車產業：中美汽車市場均個位數增長，近期Tesla model 3平價車款預購熱銷議題已淡，加上第3季步入傳統車市淡季，相關個股先前漲幅已高，短期雖有反彈，但建議待第3季中期再作留意。
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